2023 Wine Harvest: Global Production Plummets to Historic Lows
The State of Vine: 2023’s Global Wine Forecast
Based on insights from 29 major wine-producing nations, representing 94% of global output, 2023’s wine production is projected to be between 241.7 million hectoliters (mhl) and 246.6 mhl, centering around an estimated 244.1 mhl.
This marks a 7% reduction from 2022’s already lower-than-average yield, cementing 2023 as the leanest vintage since 1961, which saw 214 mhl, according to Giorgio Delgrosso, the OIV’s chief statistician, in a briefing yesterday.
Broadcasting directly from the OIV headquarters in Dijon, Delgrosso highlighted the “significant” contraction in worldwide wine output, emphasizing that this year’s figures have plunged even below the “historically low production of 2017” – a year when Europe’s vineyards were ravaged by harsh spring frosts, yielding a global total of 248 mhl of wine.
The current diminished global harvest reflects “extreme weather patterns”, leading to “substantial decreases” in production across prominent wine-producing regions of both hemispheres, Delgrosso noted, with few countries like the USA, New Zealand, and Germany showing resilience (refer to appended figures).
“Vineyard outputs globally have been markedly diminished due to early frosts, intense downpours, and extensive periods of drought,” Delgrosso proceeded to explain
He underscored that “meteorological irregularities are now becoming more of the norm,” posing one of the gravest challenges to the wine industry.
Delgrosso suggested that 2023’s reduced harvest could realign wine production with consumption levels, which have dipped, resulting in surplus stock in various regions globally.
“In the current complex economic and geopolitical milieu, with persistent inflation, we’re observing a downturn in global wine consumption, and a surplus in many regions,” he remarked.
Consequently, this year’s lower expected yield could potentially restore balance to the global wine market, Delgrosso inferred.
Delving into the decline in global wine consumption, he mentioned the market has “endured a succession of unprecedented crises,” potentially leading to “structural shifts within the industry.”
The industry has been contending with the ripple effects of Covid-19 since 2020, followed by a supply chain squeeze commencing in 2021, alongside persistent inflationary pressures that peaked in 2022 and continued through 2023,” Delgrosso elaborated. “This sequence of challenges has escalated production and distribution expenses, dampening demand as global consumers grapple with contracting spending capacity,” he further noted.
He also called attention to “two trends” affecting wine consumption. One is policy measures targeting the reduction of harmful alcohol consumption, which are “reshaping consumption patterns in numerous countries, particularly among younger demographics,” he explained.
The other trend is the intense competition from other alcoholic beverages, especially lower-alcohol options like beer, impacting wine sales, Delgrosso stated.
Below are the preliminary highlights from the OIV on 2023’s global wine production, which Delgrosso stressed are “initial estimates” that omit musts, grape juices, and data from China, a significant producer yet to report figures for the current vintage.
Southern Hemisphere Wine Production Plummets
In the southern hemisphere, wine production is anticipated to reach just 45 mhl, “signifying a stark 19% decline from 2022, the lowest level since 2003,” according to Delgrosso, attributing this to adverse climate events during the growth period in all major wine-producing areas. The southern hemisphere’s output is expected to contribute 19% to the world’s total.
Chile’s Vintage Scorched and Parched
Chile, the southern hemisphere’s largest wine producer, is reporting a 20% decrease from the previous year’s “high production” to 10 mhl, with the harvest heavily impacted by wildfires and drought conditions.
Australia’s Vines Under Water
Following Chile, Australia faces a 24% drop compared to 2022. Delgrosso attributed this to “a mix of unrelenting cold and flooding from La Nina, alongside market pressures leading to imposed yield caps to alleviate stock oversupply.”
South Africa’s Disease-Stricken Vines
South Africa, with an expected yield of 9.3 mhl, notes a 10% decrease from last year. “This season’s harvest bore the brunt of fungal diseases, notably powdery and downy mildews,” Delgrosso said.
Argentina’s Frostbitten Harvest
Argentina, ranking fourth, has been hit hard by spring frosts, leading to one of its smallest harvests at a mere 3.3 mhl – a 23% reduction from 2022.
New Zealand: A Southern Success Story
“Once again, New Zealand is the southern hemisphere’s outlier with a yield of 3.6 mhl,” Delgrosso observed, marking it as the only country showing positive growth against the five-year average.
Brazil’s Drought-Stricken Crop
Brazil’s wine production is estimated at 2.3 mhl, 30% less than in 2022. “A dry growing season significantly impacted the yield,” noted Delgrosso.
Uruguay’s Drought-Driven Decline
Lastly, Uruguay, at 500,000 hl, has suffered the southern hemisphere’s largest drop – a 34% decrease from the previous year due to severe drought.
The Northern Hemisphere’s Mixed Fortunes
The EU’s Diminishing Dominance
The EU, accounting for over 60% of global production, is predicted to produce 150 mhl in 2023, an 11 mhl – or 7% – reduction from the previous year. If validated, this would be the third smallest yield since the start of the millennium, only outpacing the 2017 and 2012 vintages.
“In the EU, 2023 presents a varied picture, with contrasting weather conditions; some areas saw fungal pressures from a wet spring, while storms and hail inflicted floods and damage,” Delgrosso described. “In the European Union’s southern territories, acute droughts have imposed significant stress on vineyards. Only a few countries this year enjoyed favorable weather, yielding average or above-average harvests.”
France’s Fortuitous Vintage
France has reclaimed its position as the world’s top producer in 2023 with an expected 45.8 mhl – consistent with 2022 and 3% higher than its five-year average. Despite some regions showing declines from the previous year, the overall harvest is considered relatively large, with the Bordeaux and Southwest regions affected by downy mildew outbreaks, and Languedoc-Roussillon suffering from drought.
Italy’s Historic Low
Italy has slipped to second place, with an estimated production of 43.9 mhl, 12% below last year and the smallest since the historic lows of 2017. “Central and southern areas are grappling with downy mildew, a key contributor to the decrease,” Delgrosso maintained.
Spain’s Twenty-Year Trough
Spain holds firm as the third-largest producer, with an estimated 30.7 mhl – a 14% decrease from 2022 and 19% below the five-year average. This year’s volume is anticipated to be the lowest in two decades, mainly due to severe drought.
EU Nations’ Production Over 1 mhl
Positive trends are seen in Germany, with a slight 1% increase to 9 mhl, Portugal up 3% at 7.4mhl, Romania up a notable 15% at 4.4mhl, and Hungary rising by 1% to 2.5mhl. “Hot, dry conditions overall, punctuated by summer rainfalls, led to high yields in these nations,” Delgrosso explained.
Conversely, Austria and Greece are bracing for production dips. “Greece’s situation is particularly concerning,” Delgrosso remarked, with an anticipated 1.1mhl – 44% below 2022 and half the five-year average, due to a combination of grape diseases and drought.
While Bulgaria and Slovenia are on the up, the Czech Republic and Croatia are down, with Croatia facing a significant 41% decrease, with harvest volumes nearly halved by downy mildew.
Non-EU Nations’ Production Over 1 mhl
The US’s Bumper Crop
The US’s wine production is estimated at 25.2mhl for 2023, up 12% from 2022 and 4% above the five-year average. “Cooler temperatures and heavy winter rainfall brought relief to the vines in Napa and Sonoma after years of drought,” Delgrosso reported.
Other Notable Regions
In Eastern Europe, Russia’s output is in line with 2022 at 4.9mhl, and 9% above the five-year average. However, Georgia is down to 1.5mhl, a 28% decrease from last year and 19% below the average due to challenging weather. Moldova has decreased by 10%, while Switzerland’s yield is up by 4% to 1mhl in 2023.
